AI Expected to Transform Global Trade, WTO Warns of Growing Gaps Without Inclusive Policies

GENEVA — A landmark report from the World Trade Organization (WTO) published on 17 September 2025 projects that artificial intelligence (AI) could increase the value of global trade in goods and services by approximately 34-37% by the year 2040, and boost global GDP by 12-13%, under various policy and technology-uptake scenarios.
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Key drivers behind this projected surge include reduced trade costs, improved productivity in logistics, regulatory compliance, and communication. For example, AI-powered translation tools are expected to enable small producers and retailers to reach global markets at lower cost and with greater ease.
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The report also notes that low-income countries could see their exports grow by up to 11%, if they can significantly improve their digital infrastructure. Without such improvements, however, many economies risk being left behind. 
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WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that the full benefits of AI will only be realized with inclusive policies. “AI could upend labor markets, transforming some jobs whilst displacing others. Managing these shifts demands investment in education, skills, retraining and social safety nets,” she said at the report launch in Geneva. 
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To make AI’s potential more equitable, the WTO calls for predictable trade rules, lower tariffs on raw materials such as semiconductors, and broader access to AI-enabling goods.