IEA says “Oil Demand Hasn’t Peaked Yet” — Global Warming Could Exceed 2.9°C This Century

A surprising reversal! The latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report projects that global oil demand could continue rising until 2050, reaching around 113 million barrels per day contradicting earlier expectations that demand would peak by 2030.

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The report’s “Current Policy Scenario (CPS)” assumes no major new energy transitions beyond current government policies, suggesting the world remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels especially in large economies like India and the United States where energy demand continues to expand.

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According to IEA, such a trajectory could push global warming to 2.9 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, far exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C target.

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Analysts note that the report’s tone aligns somewhat with the political direction of the Trump administration, which has criticized IEA for “politicizing energy” and dismissed the “peak oil demand” narrative as “nonsensical.”

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💬 TrendPro Market Analysis

• Oil prices could find medium-term support if global demand remains resilient.

• Inflation risk may re-emerge if high energy costs persist, prompting central banks to hold or even hike rates.

• Gold and Bitcoin could gain traction as inflation hedges amid renewed energy-driven price pressures.

• Energy & EV stocks may face volatility as investors reassess timelines for the global energy transition.

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🧭 For traders — this is a pivotal moment to monitor oil markets closely. Energy may once again become the spark that reshapes global inflation and market sentiment.